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Social and Economic Impact of Influenza

Impact of pandemic influenza

While the costs of epidemic influenza are considerable, the potential social and economic impact of pandemic influenza is even greater. It is difficult to predict the impact of a future pandemic with any reasonable degree of accuracy. Factors influencing the impact include the attack rate, the pathogenicity of the virus and the adequacy of control measures. Pandemic influenza results from the emergence and rapid spread of a novel influenza virus, as discussed in Chapter 3 . The most devastating on record was the 1918–19 “Spanish flu” pandemic caused by an H1N1 virus, estimated to have caused 50 million deaths worldwide (see Chapter 3 ). While the 1957 Asian flu (H2N2) and the 1968 Hong Kong flu (H3N2) have caused less severe pandemics, the morbidity and mortality among the elderly and people with high-risk conditions remained severe.

The US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has estimated the costs involved in the event of a pandemic in the USA. 28 x MI Meltzer, NJ Cox, K Fukuda. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Emerg Infect Dis 5 (1999) (657 - 671) Patients at high risk (15% of the population) would account for approximately 84% of all deaths, and the economic impact would be between US $71.3 and $166.5 billion, excluding disruptions to commerce and society ( Table 12 ).

Table 12 Estimated socio-economic burden of a future influenza pandemic in the USA. source: Data derived from Meltzer MI et al . The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Emerg Infect Dis 1999; 5 : 657–671. 28 x MI Meltzer, NJ Cox, K Fukuda. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Emerg Infect Dis 5 (1999) (657 - 671) Available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/meltzer.htm

Estimated socio-economic burden of a future influenza pandemic in the USA
Clinical event Numbers affected
Deaths 89,000–207,000
Hospitalizations 314,000–734,000
Outpatient visits 18–42 million
Additional illnesses 20–47 million

References in context

In the event of another pandemic, and particularly in light of rapid ageing of the population, a crisis in health-care capacity and ability to cope with the emergency may be anticipated along with a considerable social and economic impact. 29 x NJ Cox, SE Tamblyn, T Tam. Influenza pandemic planning. Vaccine 21 (2003) (1801 - 1803) Crossref. One study using a 25% attack rate in the event of a pandemic estimated a 3.7-fold rise in outpatient visits, a 3.9-fold increase in hospitalizations and an 8.2-fold rise in deaths. 30 x DP Schopflocher, ML Russell, LW Svenson, TH Nguyen, I Mazurenko. Pandemic influenza planning: using the U.S. Centers for Disease Control FluAid Software for small area estimation in the Canadian context. Ann Epidemiol 14 (2004) (73 - 76) Crossref. Clearly, this would outstrip the capacity of the current supply system and place an enormous burden on the supply management for vaccine, as discussed further in Chapter 9 . 31 x JK Medema, YF Zoellner, J Ryan, AM Palache. Modeling pandemic preparedness scenarios: health economic implications of enhanced pandemic vaccine supply. Virus Res 103 (2004) (9 - 15) Crossref.

 
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Table 12 Estimated socio-economic burden of a future influenza pandemic in the USA. source: Data derived from Meltzer MI et al . The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Emerg Infect Dis 1999; 5 : 657–671. 28 x MI Meltzer, NJ Cox, K Fukuda. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Emerg Infect Dis 5 (1999) (657 - 671) Available from http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/meltzer.htm

Estimated socio-economic burden of a future influenza pandemic in the USA
Clinical event Numbers affected
Deaths 89,000–207,000
Hospitalizations 314,000–734,000
Outpatient visits 18–42 million
Additional illnesses 20–47 million

References in context

References

Label Authors Title Source Year
28

References in context

MI Meltzer, NJ Cox, K Fukuda. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA. Emerg Infect Dis 5 (1999) (657 - 671) 1999
29

References in context

NJ Cox, SE Tamblyn, T Tam. Influenza pandemic planning. Crossref. Vaccine 21 (2003) (1801 - 1803) 2003
30

References in context

DP Schopflocher, ML Russell, LW Svenson, TH Nguyen, I Mazurenko. Pandemic influenza planning: using the U.S. Centers for Disease Control FluAid Software for small area estimation in the Canadian context. Crossref. Ann Epidemiol 14 (2004) (73 - 76) 2004
31

References in context

JK Medema, YF Zoellner, J Ryan, AM Palache. Modeling pandemic preparedness scenarios: health economic implications of enhanced pandemic vaccine supply. Crossref. Virus Res 103 (2004) (9 - 15) 2004

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